Western Conference Elitists

Analytics Claim Jaylen Brown is the 7th Best Player on a Team, What does our Data Show?

Ezra Berke · Jul 6, 2026

Bobby Marks made headlines last week amidst all the chaos of the start of the League’s new year, when he quoted an analytics driven front office which claimed, “We actually view Jaylen Brown as the seventh-best player on a team”. Many…

Bobby Marks made headlines last week amidst all the chaos of the start of the League’s new year, when he quoted an analytics driven front office which claimed, “We actually view Jaylen Brown as the seventh-best player on a team”. Many media members were outraged at such a disgraceful comment, but those media members aren’t in front offices, and don’t have (or choose not to look at) the real numbers which we now can see. So, being the analytically driven evaluators that we are at WCEHoops, is there a case to be made for Jaylen Brown to be the 7th best player on a team.

For starters, let's look at Jaylen Brown’s Basketball Savant page:

The first thing that jumps out to me is, ELITE Defender. Like, borderline All NBA Defense candidate level. These numbers show that the MAN with a 99th percentile usage rate on offense (a higher rate than MVP SGA), takes on a high level of matchup difficulty. If you go back in time to his Finals MVP season when he was a 93rd percentile usage player (comps to 2026 Tyrese Maxey), his matchup difficulty soars to Jrue Holliday level. We haven’t even begun to talk about the fact that his opponents are shooting 5% worse against him than they would on average. So yeah, ELITE Defense.

Offensively, everyone knows that last year may have been his peak. Brown pretty much outright said this after the Celtics-Sixers series: “Honestly this is the most fun season I’ve ever had in basketball” (twitch stream). But with his peak usage, his statistical profile comps best to Cade Cunningham:

I mean, his numbers offensively are literally as good or better than Cade’s across the board. Except for two categories, that we have to focus on, because it’s likely the most critical aspect of why the smart Celtics front office traded him last week.

Jaylen’s assist percentage being significantly lower than Cunningham’s and other similar usage players is important. Joe Mazzulla's offensive style relies on ball movement and spacing (elite rim pressure guys drive and kick out to elite shooters with a collapsed defense- about as synergistic as it gets), and at the highest scale, Jaylen Brown doesn’t move the ball like he is being paid to do. If we go back to 2025-25, when Jaylen was playing alongside Jayson, and Paul George wasn’t being suspended for getting high on illegal substances, the assist rate is nearly identical, and the 3 point shooting favors George.

The next glaring statistical deficiency for Brown comes in his on/off net rating. Say what you want about Jaylen Brown, but the fact remains that the Celtics were better with him off the court than on the court.

Now, many people make valid excuses for this. He’s playing against the starters, he’s on for all the opposing team’s end of game free throws, etc, but the facts remain. The Celtics team net rating with Jaylen on the floor was +6.9, with him off +16.5. Any way you slice it, the Celtics played better with Jaylen off the floor.

This is what I believe Brad Stevens and Joe Mazzulla were looking at when they executed this trade. To understand this trade, you have to put yourself into Joe Mazzulla’s offensive gameplan (the same game plan that won him coach of the year). Coach Mazzulla wants to swing the ball around, get offensive rebounds (they signed Mitchell Robinson, go check out his rebounding numbers), and jack up a lot of threes. To do this, Paul George IS a better fit than Jaylen Brown, especially considering the return of ball dominant Jayson Tatum. The goal of the Celtics is not to have the most individual all stars (JB > PG pretty easily in that regard), it is to buy players who contribute to a winning system.

Hang his number in the rafters, never forget the 2024 championship run, when Jaylen stepped up and guarded Luka when nobody else could, and still led the team in scoring on the other end, but Boston believes they can substitute Brown’s defense with Derrick White, his offensive output with Jayson Tatum’s return, and get a little something extra out of adding Paul George. Something front offices often call “addition via subtraction”.

One thing these numbers neglect to show is Brown’s insane durability, especially when compared to Paul George. Jaylen has missed 142 games over a 10 year career, Paul George has missed a combined 158 games in the last 5 seasons. This trade will age very poorly, if we get another sub 50 games played season from PG, though if he’s back for the playoffs the Celtics will be happy.

FINAL VERDICT: Don’t make this trade… unless you have Joe Mazzulla.

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